TimKesten.com

Lately there has been a lot of discussion concerning who the best one loss team in the country is.  USC seems to be getting the majority of the support and other than the fact that “USC” is on their jerseys I can not figure out why.  The only teams that can even be considered for that title at this point are USC and Virginia Tech, and in my mind, the best one loss team in the country at this point is Virginia Tech, in a land slide.

Virginia Tech is 5-1, beating Marshall, Nebraska, Miami, Duke and Boston College.  None of those teams have a losing record, and they have combined for a record of 19-9.  Two of the teams, Miami and Nebraska are 4-1, meaning they have not lost to anyone other than the Hokies.  If you count the only game that Tech lost, their opponents this season have a combined record of 24-9.  USC, on the other hand has beaten San Jose State, Ohio State, Washington State and California.  Those teams have a combined record of 10-12, with Ohio State accounting for half of those wins.

Virginia Tech’s one loss came to a vastly superior opponent than did USC’s.  Virginia Tech was leading in the fourth quarter against an Alabama team that is currently 6-0 and that many (myself included) think is the best team in the country.  The Hokies scored 24 points against The Tide, more than any other team this season and almost double the 12.5 points per game Alabama’s defense is averaging this season.

USC’s lone loss came to Washington, who lost all twelve games they played last year.  This year Washington is 3-3 and when playing teams not called the Trojans they are giving up over 31 points per game.  USC managed only 13, ten points less than the Idaho Vandals scored against the Huskies the week before.

There is plenty of football left to be played.  This week Virginia Tech plays at 19th ranked Georgia Tech, and if they navigate the rest of their schedule they will still have to play in the ACC championship game.  USC plays 25th ranked Notre Dame on Saturday and still has to go to Oregon.  It is not a given that either team will have only one loss at the end of the season.  It is also not a given that Texas, Florida, Alabama, Cincinnati, USF, Iowa and Kansas will all lose one game.  They are all undefeated at the moment, and neither the Hokies nor the Trojans could pass any of those teams, should any of them finish the season with a perfect record, so this discussion may prove to be unnecessary.  For now, however, I think it’s clear that the Virginia Tech Hokies have done enough this season to be recognized as the better team.

Three weeks (and one Thursday night game) into the college football season and there are now 28 teams without a loss, including two teams from non automatic qualifying conferences that are ranked in the top 25, and thirteen undefeated teams that are not in the top 25.  Twenty eight teams have a chance this weekend to keep the dream alive or be cast off with the also-rans.  Some, like Texas, who plays UTEP this weekend, are a pretty safe bet to remain undefeated.  But I will tell you who I think will get their first loss this week and some teams on the rise that may survive the weekend with a perfect record.

Dunzo:

Indiana, Southern Miss, Colorado State, Iowa, South Florida, Kentucky, Arizona State, North Carolina, Wisconsin

Indiana plays at Michigan after beating Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron.  Southern Miss has a shot against Kansas but it’s a long one, as their three wins have come against an FCS school and two really bad FBS teams.  Colorado State has improved greatly this season under second year coach Steve Fairchild, but not enough to win at BYU, as the Cougars look to rebound from their embarrassing loss to Florida State last week.

Iowa upset Penn State last year and ruined their national title hopes, but this year the game is in Happy Valley and I don’t see them doing it again.  Kentucky hosts a Florida team that is unhappy about its performance last week against Tennessee and is getting several key players back from injury or sickness.  The Wildcats will put up a fight at first, but it will not be enough in the end.  South Florida goes to Tallahassee to play a Seminole team that looks as though it may have gotten the wake up call it needed against Jacksonville State.  Without the Bulls’ quarterback Matt Groethe this one could be a laugher.

Arizona State is ranked first in the country in total defense, but mostly because they have only played Idaho State and Louisiana Monroe.  This week that defense will be tested as they go between the hedges to play at Georgia, who scored a combined 93 points in their last two games.   I think the Dawgs will cruise in this one.

North Carolina and Wisconsin are both favored this week, but I think they will both lose.  UNC has a very good defense but they play at Georgia Tech this week.  The Tarheels have not played anyone with a rushing offense like Tech’s this season and have lost at Georgia Tech five straight times.  Wisconsin is undefeated but could easily be one and two.  Their only convincing win came last week against Wofford, an FCS school.  The Badgers host Michigan State this week, who is one and two but could easily be undefeated.  The Spartans can not afford to lose another close one, and I think they’ll upset Wisconsin.

Still Undefeated (but don’t get your hopes up)

Texas A&M, Missouri, UCLA, Auburn, Pitt

Texas A&M is an unconvincing 2-0 after beating New Mexico and escaping Utah State.  The Aggies will win again this week against UAB, but the next two weeks, against Arkansas and Oklahoma State they will be exposed.  Missouri has been surprisingly good after the loss of Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel.  They will continue to impress this week against Nevada, and they will win more games down the road, but don’t expect them to navigate a schedule that includes Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Texas without some bumps and bruises.

Auburn will improve to 4-0 this week against Ball State, and after wins against Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State and West Virginia, but the rest of their schedule is ridiculous.  The Tigers will play at Tennessee, at Arkansas, host Kentucky, at LSU, host Ole Miss, at Georgia and host Alabama.  That may be the toughest schedule in the country.  I do not think that Auburn has enough to get through that stretch.

Pitt has yet to play an FBS team with a winning record.  They will when they travel to NC State this week.  The Wolfpack have righted their offense against two FCS teams after it looked terrible in week one against South Carolina.  I think Pitt will win this game easily, and I think they can compete inside their conference, but that’s about it.  UCLA will remain undefeated by default; they are on a bye.

Still Undefeated (and look out!):

Cincinnati, Houston, Miami (FL)

Cincinnati hosts giant killers Fresno State this week, and if they had to travel to Fresno for the game, I would probably see this one differently.  In the last four weeks Fresno State has had to travel from California to Wisconsin, back to California, and now to Cincinnati.  I think this one will be close, but I generally don’t like teams that have to cross time zones.  After this week Cincinnati’s schedule is very manageable, as they will likely not play a ranked team for the rest of the year.

Houston already has one signature win against Oklahoma, this week they will be looking for their second against Texas Tech.  I don’t necessarily think that Houston is better than Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders are going to be fighting the Texas hangover, and both games they lost last year came away from home.  This is another game that I might pick differently if it wasn’t a home game.  If Houston does beat Texas Tech, they have an incredibly easy schedule the rest of the way, including several games against very bad teams.

Miami (FL) is two games into a brutal four game stretch.  They survived Florida State and then thumped Georgia Tech.  This week they play Virginia Tech, a team that I think, because of lack of production by quarterback Tyrod Taylor is totally over rated.  Taylor is completing just 47.6 percent of his passes this season.  The game is in Blacksburg, and that will certainly help the Hokies, but quarterback Jacory Harris seams like the real deal and Miami’s defense will try to make Taylor make bad decisions.  The last game of Miami’s gauntlet is next week against Oklahoma.  There’s no indication that Heisman trophy winner Same Bradford will be able to play in that game, and if (and that’s a big if) Miami wins these two games, they will undoubtedly be a top-five team and will only have one ranked team remaining on their schedule.

I’m Not Sold:

Michigan, Kansas, TCU

Michigan has looked impressive so far, but they’ve played a couple teams from non-automatic qualifying conferences, and until someone from the Big Ten conference does something to convince me otherwise, I’m not going to count a 3-0 start by a Big Ten team as impressive.  At this point, for a Big Ten team to be considered worthy of a national championship bid, they must run the table.  I don’t see Michigan doing that.

Kansas is 3-0 after beating Northern Colorado, UTEP and Duke.  In other words, they haven’t proven anything yet.  This week I believe they will remain undefeated as they play Southern Miss, but wee really won’t know much about the Jayhawks until October 24th when they play Oklahoma.  Kansas has a very good shot at being 6-0 before they play the Sooners, but after that they play at Texas Tech, host Nebraska, play at Texas and host Missouri.  This could be a 7-4 type of team at the end of the season.

TCU has been close to busting the BCS before but, have never succeeded.  This year they are 2-0 and ranked 15th in the A.P. Poll.  They have already beaten one ACC team, but that team was Virginia, who is 0-3 and already had lost to an FCS school.  This game is a toss up for me, but I’m inclined to pick Clemson because they are at home.  Even if TCU wins this game, however, they still have games remaining against Colorado State and Utah and at BYU.  Never mind the championship game, to play in any BCS bowl TCU must win every game.  I’m not convinced they can.

At the end of every college football season you look back at certain wins and realize that they were not as good of a win as you thought at the time.  Similarly, there are losses that do not seem as bad.  When LSU beat Auburn 26-21 last year, it was perceived as a big win for the Tigers.  At the end of the season, it looked like they should have beaten them by more than five points.  Similarly, Florida’s home loss to Ole Miss looked a lot worse on September 27th then it did on January 2nd, after Ole Miss had beaten Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl and completed a nine-win season.

This season will be no exception, and after week one it’s hard to definitively say that we truly know much about any team.  Michigan and Notre Dame have to be thrilled with their convincing wins over Western Michigan and Nevada, respectively.  However, if Michigan beats Notre Dame this week and Nevada gets hammered by Missouri next week by Missouri, it suddenly won’t seem so impressive, and the same goes in reverse.

Ohio State, meanwhile survived a scare from Navy at home, needing an interception on a two point conversion late in the game to preserve a victory.  With USC coming to Columbus next week that result made a lot of Buckeye fans very nervous, and maybe they should be.  But, I don’t think that ten wins is out of the question for Navy this year, and come December that result may demonstrate more about Navy being better than most expected than it does about Ohio State being worse.  We’ll know a bit more about the Buckeyes after they host USC, but even if they beat USC some will question the weight of that victory if true freshman quarterback Matt Barkley struggles playing in only his second college football game, and his first on the road.

Oklahoma State scored a huge win when they defeated Georgia and they look like they are ready to back up the hype surrounding their program this year.  The Bulldogs were ranked thirteen coming into the game, but nobody really knows how good Georgia is at this point.  They lost Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno to the NFL draft, and Joe Cox, Stafford’s replacement had the flu on Saturday.  I think Oklahoma State needs to beat a more seasoned team before they are considered an elite team in the Big 12.

The SEC is hanging its hat on Alabama’s victory over Virginia Tech.  The common theory is that it was Alabama’s toughness on defense that limited the Hokies to only 155 yards of total offense.  We really will not know if that’s the case until Virginia Tech plays Nebraska next week and then Miami after that.  If their offense sputters in those games, the accomplishments of the Crimson Tide’s defense will be diminished.  If, on the other hand, the Hokies are able to move the ball on those teams, then you would have to consider Alabama to be a contender for the BCS championship.

The final wait-and-see scenarios produced by this weekend’s games are Washington and LSU.  The Tiger’s fans are panicking because they watched a team that was winless a year ago go toe to toe with their team for three quarters before LSU finally took control of the game.  But Washington may surprise some people this year.  The Huskies have a new coaching staff and returned talented quarterback Jake Locker who missed most of last season due to injury.

All of this will work it out on its own; it always does.  The SEC and Big 12 will slug it out in conference play, leaving one team from each conference standing.  But I think the most intriguing situation in all of this is the sort of round-robin tournament that will play out this season between Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan and USC.   As I said before, Notre Dame and Michigan will have a chance to knock each other off this weak, as will USC and Ohio State.   Next month, Notre Dame and USC play each other and Michigan and Ohio State face off in their season finales.  Each of the four teams will play two out of the other three before the end of the year.  If any of those teams wants to be selected for the BCS national championship over a Big 12 or SEC team, winning those two games would be a good place to start.

For most powerhouse programs in college football the first weak of the season means playing a team with more words in its school’s name than professional prospects on the field.  Most title-contending teams ease into competition with the likes of the Middle Tennessee State University Blue Raiders or the Red Hawks of Southeastern Missouri State University.  This year, however, a handful of teams have scheduled tough, non-conference opponents for their first game of the season, and should make the first weekend a memorable and exciting one.

The season starts on Thursday night as South Carolina travels to Raleigh to take on N.C. State, and even though this is an SEC vs. ACC match up it is not the marquee game of the night.  That takes place later when Boise State hosts Oregon on the blue turf.  Boise State has lost twice at home this decade.  Oregon will be looking for revenge as Boise State beat them last season in Eugene.  Both teams are ranked in the top twenty, and Boise State has serious aspirations of crashing the BCS this year.  If the Broncos can get by Oregon they would likely be favored in every game for the rest of the year and might be playing after New Year’s.

Saturday will start with plenty of laughers and blowouts, but at 3:30 things will finally get serious as Georgia plays at Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys are a popular pick to stir things up in the Big 12, much like Texas Tech did last year.  They return quarterback Zach Robinson, wide receiver Dez Bryant and running back Kendall Hunter, arguably the three most important players in an offense that averaged over 41 points per game last season.  Georgia, conversely, has to replace their two most important offensive players, Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford, who were both first round draft picks.  If Oklahoma State can beat Georgia, they will have a very good chance of being 7-0 when they play Texas on Halloween.

All eyes will turn to the Georgia Dome Saturday night when fifth ranked Alabama plays seventh ranked Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A College Kickoff game.  Alabama took part in this game last season as an underdog to Clemson who entered the season ranked ninth in the nation.  Alabama beat Clemson soundly and rose from 24th to 13th in the nation.  Two months later, Dabo Swinney had replaced coach Tommy Bowden at Clemson and Alabama had replaced Texas as the number one ranked team in college football.  Virginia Tech is hoping to win its third straight ACC championship and fourth in the six years since the Hokies joined the conference.  This will finally be Tyrod Taylor’s chance to shine, as he will no longer have to split time at quarterback with Sean Glennon.  Taylor is an athletic quarterback who has run for more touchdowns in his career than he has thrown.   If the Hokies hope to beat the Crimson Tide, and contend on the national level, they will need Taylor to be more consistent and more productive through the air.  For the Tide this will be a real test for their revamped offensive line, which, without tackle Andre Smith was dominated by Utah in the Sugar Bowl.  The winner of this game will undoubtedly enter the conversation about national title contenders.

With the NFL not starting until the following week, there are two intriguing match ups on Monday to finish off the weekend.  First, in the afternoon Cincinnati travels to Rutgers in a Big East conference game.  Greg Schiano has done a great job making Rutgers relevant, yet for all his success in Piscataway, the Scarlet Knights have yet to win a conference title or play in a BCS bowl game.  Many believe that this is the year they will, and a win over Cincinnati would certainly be a step in the right direction.  Cincinnati has enjoyed a bit of rebirth under coach Brian Kelly, as they won eleven games last year and went to a BCS bowl as the Big East champions.  This year, however, they return only one starter on defense.  This game should serve as a good barometer for both teams.

Later that night, Florida State hosts in-state, in-conference and hated rival Miami (FL).  This Monday night game used to feature rosters full of players that would one day play on Monday nights more regularly.  Now both programs are trying to recapture the magic that once made them two of the most dominant programs in the country.   There is little doubt that Miami needs a win in this game more than Florida State.  The Hurricanes start their season with a brutal stretch, facing Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma after their meeting with the Seminoles.  Miami will be handing the reigns to sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris, as last year’s often maligned starter, Robert Marve, is no longer with the team.  Harris played quite a bit last season, but he will have to learn and improve very quickly for the Hurricanes, or an 0-4 start for 2009 is not out of the question.  Red shirt junior Christian Ponder returns at quarterback for the Seminoles.   Ponder showed flashes last season, but he will need to limit his mistakes as he threw almost as many interceptions (13) last season as touchdowns (14).  The Seminoles will also have to find someone to catch the ball as their top two receivers from a year ago are no longer with the team.  This game may not mean as much to the rest of the country as it once did, but the ‘Canes and the ‘Noles still don’t like each other and it should be fun game to watch.

Dear Golden Domers,

I know this time of the year is filled with excitement for football fans.  I know you are just itching to get that six loss taste out of your mouths.  I know you think this is the year that Jimmy Clausen finally puts it all together.  I know you have BCS dreams.  I think you are getting a little ahead of yourselves.

I realize that you play a very manageable (read: weak) schedule, that you have some talent at wide receiver, that you return seventeen starters, including ten offensive starters.  The thing is I still don’t think you’re going to be that good.  Sure, because of the schedule you’ll win some games, but all that will just be window dressing if and when you get pounded by USC and whatever team you play in your bowl game (because, let’s face it, no matter how mediocre you play this season, you are going to a bowl game).

Let’s look at the schedule.  In week one you host Nevada.  This is not a gimme.  Nevada went 7-6 last season (same as you) and returns sixteen starters, including seven all conference selections.  This is their Superbowl.  If this wasn’t a home game for you, I would probably pick you to lose.  As it is, I’d say it’s a toss up.

In week two you travel to Michigan for what should be a pretty convincing win.  Michigan is a mess.   Coach Rich Rodriguez will eventually turn things around in Ann Arbor, but for now he still has a lot of square pegs and not a lot of athletes.

In week three you will be over-matched by Michigan State’s receiving core, provided that one of their talented sophomore quarterbacks emerges.  The Spartans return fifteen starters from a team that went 9-4 a year ago and finished one game back from the lead in the Big Ten.

Weeks four and five should produce wins at Purdue and against Washington, two teams that won four and zero games last year, respectively.  Both teams have first year coaches and Washington hasn’t won a game since November of 2007.

A bye week will give you time to prepare to be crushed by USC, a team that you haven’t beaten since 2001, and the following week you will probably lose to Boston College.  I know that both teams have uncertainty at quarterback, but USC would probably beat you with their third-string signal caller and Boston College returns four starters on the offensive line, as well as their top two running backs, so they probably won’t need much production from whoever is taking the snaps.

After you beat an absolutely horrible Washington State squad you host Navy, a team that infamously upset you two years ago, and a team that you beat by only six last season.  The Midshipmen led the nation in rushing last year, and have played in a bowl game six consecutive years.  Don’t expect much to change this year.  This one may be a shoot out like in 2007.

Next you travel to Pittsburgh for a game I do not seeing you winning.  The Panthers are a common pick to win the Big East this season and they return a strong offensive line and a tough defense from a team that went 9-3 for Dave Wannstedt last year.  With the loss of running back Donald Brown and quarterback Tyler Lorenzen, I think you will handle Connecticut.  But the Huskies have made it to two consecutive bowl games, so this one might not be easy.

In the final game of the regular season you play Stanford, a seemingly improving team under Jim Harbaugh.  The Cardinal’s defense was pretty bad last year, and even with the returning offensive skill players they have I think you will be able to outscore them.

So where does that leave you, Notre Dame fans.  I foresee losses against Michigan State, USC, Boston College and Pittsburgh, wins against Michigan, Purdue, Washington, Washington State, Connecticut and Stanford, and I think you will split against Nevada and Navy.  So that means 7 wins and five losses.   If you beat both Nevada and Navy, then you will have 8 wins and four losses.  But even then, no BCS.

The bottom line is the flawed system that is the BCS will do anything short of rewriting the rulebook to include you in one of its games, but eight wins just isn’t enough.  Can you get to nine?  It is possible.  But if you do, if you get invited to a BCS bowl game and get to play one of the nations elite teams, I promise you, Irish, it won’t be pretty.  Nine wins against bad teams does not make you a good team, but it may afford you the opportunity to be embarrassed by one.

Sincerely,

Tim Kesten

There is nothing we, as a society, like more than a rags to riches story more than a riches to rags to riches story.  We love to tear down our celebrities.   We love to watch the downfall of those who have been afforded more than us.  And we love to watch them pick themselves back up.  M.C. Hammer has a reality show, for God’s sake.

Michael Vick had everything.  He was the highest paid player in the NFL at one point, and he was an idiot.  He gave “the finger” to his adoring fans in Atlanta.  He was stopped in an airport for having a water bottle with trace amounts of marijuana.  He thought that he was above the law and, of course, he wasn’t.

He wasn’t above the law when he financed and took part in a dog fighting ring.  This dog fighting ring not only pitted man’s best friends against each other but also tortured and killed dogs.  Just to be clear, I love dogs.  I like dogs more than I like most people, to be honest.  I think that dogs are one of God’s greatest gifts to man.  They are loyal, they are caring, they want nothing more than the company of humans (well, that and something to eat).  The acts that Michael Vick carried out against those pit bulls were despicable.

That said, Michael Vick was punished.  He spent time in prison.  Not just 30 days or a few months, Michael Vick spent 23 months in prison.  The purpose of prison is to punish those who commit crimes, and Michael Vick has served his sentence.  Not to mention the fortune that he has lost because of his actions.

There is no solid evidence that there is still a place for Vick in the NFL, at least not as a starting quarterback.  He’s never completed more than 57% of his passes in a season, and his career passer rating is 75.7.  Many believe that he regressed in his last two seasons and two years away from the game may further diminished his skills.

With the emergence of the “wildcat” formation in the past year, he more likely will find a role as a situational back.  He is, after all the only NFL quarterback to run for 1,000 yards in a season.  If the single back formation bothers offensive coordinators when a running back is under center, it should be a nightmare to prepare for when the player taking the snaps is a quarterback.  But even as the “wildcat” trend seems to be Vick’s ticket back into the NFL, no team has publicly expressed interest in him, and most front offices have stated explicitly that they are not interested in Vick.

But that said, we should all hope that Vick takes the necessary actions, as well as avoiding others, to have at least a shot at reviving his career.  If he fails as a quarterback, or as an NFL player in general it won’t be nearly the tragedy than if he fails again as a human being, and never gets that opportunity.

If in the coming months, or ever, for that matter, Vick should show his arrogance again and runs afoul of the law for any reason, then we should all wish him the justice he deserves and no one should hope for anything other than what is coming for him.  In the meantime, we should all collectively be hoping that this young man has learned from his mistakes and his hubris, that he might take this opportunity to make himself a better person, to succeed where he once failed and to be a glaring, if not a shining example to those who would come after him.

We should all hope that Michael Vick has a chance to return to the NFL, in some capacity, and we should all hope that he succeeds.  We should all hope that Michael Vick never has another run-in with the law.  We should all hope that Michael Vick becomes a model citizen.  We should hope that he reaches out to troubled youth and that he supports animal rights.  We should hope that someone who falls so far, no matter how high a pedestal we once placed him on, can at least rise to redeem himself.

There will be 18 new head coaches in the FBS in 2008.  Rich Rodriguez took over at Michigan and Bill Stewart took over for him at West Virginia.  Houston Nutt left Arkansas for Mississippi and Bobby Petrino returned from the NFL to coach Arkansas.  June Jones left Hawaii, after guiding them to their first BCS bowl game, in order to Coach Southern Methodist University, a team that was 1-11 last year.  Paul Johnson brings his triple option from Navy to Georgia Tech, and David Cutcliffe brings his expertise in working with quarterbacks to Duke.  The last time the Blue Devils won the ACC was in 1989 when they had another quarterback guru as their head coach, Steve Spurrier.  Bo Pelini is charged with bringing the black shirt defense back to Nebraska and UCLA is hoping that Rick Neuheisel, who was fired from Washington after he admitted to gambling on college basketball, isn’t charged with anything at all.

Most likely to succeed (immediately):  Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech and Bo Pelini, Nebraska.

Yeah, I know Bill Stewart is going to succeed at West Virginia.  He takes over a team that was one rivalry game away from going to the national championship last year.  I know he guided the Mountaineers to a win in the Fiesta Bowl over Oklahoma in Rich Rodriguez’s absence.  I know West Virginia returns a ton of talent despite the loss of Steve Slaton to the NFL.  I also know Stewart isn’t going to a new school, he’s stepping into a new position.  If Stewart doesn’t win at least eight games it will be a surprise.  So I choose to focus on those coaches who are completely new at their schools, those that have to turn around a program, not continue the success of their predecessor.

Petrino and Nutt inherit talented teams, but the SEC is just too loaded for them to step in and enjoy immediate success (ask Nick Saban, who accepted a $32 million dollar contract at Alabama and proceeded to coach the Tide to a fifth place finish in the SEC west).  They’ll probably be above .500, and be invited to a bowl, but in places like Arkansas and Mississippi that is mediocrity, not success.  UCLA’s schedule will likely prove to be too much for Rick Neuhiesel, at least this season.  The Bruin’s will play road games against BYU, Oregon and Arizona State as well as home games against Tennessee, Fresno State, Oregon State and USC.  Paul Johnson inherits a Georgia Tech team that went 7-5 last year and it will be interesting to see how ACC defenses deal with the triple option.  Standing in Johnson’s way are road games at Boston College, at Virginia Tech, at Clemson and at Georgia.

Nebraska could not stop anybody last season.  Eight of the twelve teams that Nebraska played last year scored more than thirty points against them.  Enter former Nebraska defensive coordinator Bo Pelini.  In 2003, Pelini’s first season at Nebraska, the Husker’s defense was ranked eleventh nationally, improved from 55th the year before.  Nebraska had very little trouble scoring last year, averaging over 34 points per game.  And though they will have to replace quarterback Sam Keller, they only play five teams that had winning records last year compared to seven teams that didn’t.

Most Likely to fail (immediately):  Rich Rodriguez, Michigan.

Rodriguez isn’t starting from scratch in building his program at Michigan, but he might be better off if he was.  Quarterback Chad Henne, Running Back Mike Hart and receiver Mario Manningham are all on NFL rosters now.  In fact, the offense only returns three starters and it is likely that a freshman will start at quarterback.  Rodriguez must make the square peg players that are returning fit into his round whole offense as he installs the spread option at a program where the previous definition of innovation was the forward pass.  Michigan plays Utah, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan State at home and Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue and Ohio State on the road.  They return all four defensive linemen, and that will be a strength, but they will not have nearly enough talent or experience to match up with that schedule.  At least not this year.

The Wild Card: June Jones, SMU.

When Jones stepped in at the University of Hawaii, their program was in disarray.  The then Rainbow Warriors had lost eighteen games in a row including all twelve the year before.  In one year, Jones orchestrated the largest turnaround in NCAA football history, and Hawaii won nine games including beating Oregon State in the Oahu Bowl.  SMU has some of the foundation laid for success, but they finished 1-11 last season, with no conference victories while giving up almost 40 points and over 300 passing yards per game last season.  Jones has never been known as a defensive minded coach; Hawaii allowed over 28 points per game last season against division one opponents.  Combine that with the suspensions of returning starting quarterback Justin Willis and returning strong safety Bryce Hudman as well as uncertainty at the offensive line, which is particularly crucial in Jones’ offense (remember the Sugar Bowl?)  and lack of proven depth at receiver and it’s hard to bet on Jones performing another record turn around this year.  I wouldn’t bet against him either.

John Smoltz probably did not need 3000 strikeouts to get into baseball’s Hall of Fame. Up until this point, it wasn’t really a matter of “if” but “when” for the eight time All Star. That he is now the only pitcher in Major League Baseball history to save 100 games while also striking out 3000 batters, should ensure that Cooperstown welcomes Smoltz at its earliest opportunity, five years after his illustrious career ends.

To truly understand the career of John Smoltz one must do something that baseball fans don’t normally like to do. They must ignore the desire for the signature statistic. They must ignore the milestones. The 500 home runs, the 3000 hits. The 300 wins, the 300 saves. Unlike most first ballot Hall of Famers, Smoltz doesn’t have those milestone numbers. In fact, in cumulative numbers he’s not in the top ten of anything that really matters to Cooperstown. His 210 wins are tied for the 91st most. His 154 saves are tied for 61st most. His career earned run average of 3.25 is tied for the 273rd best (though no active player with at least 100 career decisions is in the top 100).

In fact, the only category in which Smoltz has a chance of cracking the top ten is strikeouts and that alone would not be enough to ensure a place in Cooperstown. Smoltz is currently 16th with 3011 strikeouts – 331 behind Phil Niekro for tenth. Considering that Smoltz struck out 408 batters over the 2006 and 2007 season and that he has already struck out 36 this year, it is not unreasonable to think that Smoltz could catch Niekro and claim the tenth spot. However, Burt Blyleven retired after striking out 3701 batters, the fifth most of all time, and is still not in the Hall 16 years after he called it quits.

It is only when you look at the culmination of Smoltz’s career that you can understand why he almost certainly will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. In everything he did, he excelled. He first excelled as a starter. In the first ten seasons (not including the strike-shortened season of 1994) when Smoltz was a full-time starter for Atlanta he averaged 15 wins. Then, when an injury forced Smoltz to change his pitching style and pitching role for four seasons he excelled as a closer. In the three seasons when Smoltz held that job full-time for Atlanta he averaged 48 saves while compiling more strikeouts than innings pitched in all three seasons. Finally, when Atlanta’s coaching staff was convinced that Smoltz could once again hold up to the strain of starting, he responded by posting a record of 44 and 24 and an ERA of 3.22 during three seasons in which he pitched over 200 innings each.

Of the past 18 years in which Smoltz has pitched in Major League baseball, he has posted an ERA under 4.00 in 17, barely missing a perfect 18 for 18 because of the aforementioned season of 1994 when his ERA was 4.14. He has had six seasons in which his ERA was under 3.00, including 1996 when he posted an ERA of 2.94, a record of 24 and 8 and won the Cy Young, and 2003 when he posted the best ERA of his career, a measly 1.12, while saving 45 games. Not to mention that he is also one of the greatest post-season pitchers of all time. He has compiled a playoff record of 15 and 4, with an ERA of 2.65 while striking out 194 batters in 207 innings pitched. Combine that with a strike out per nine innings pitched ratio of 7.984, which is better than all but two current Hall of Fame pitchers and a Roberto Clemente award in 2005 for strong work in the community and John Smoltz should be guaranteed a spot in Cooperstown.

Although with a current record of 3 and 2, an ERA of 2.00 and more strikeouts than innings pitched this season, there’s no hurry. Whenever you’re ready, Mr. Smoltz. Cooperstown can wait.

You do not like professional football as much as you think you do, and the NFL knows it.

In an episode of The Simpsons, Lisa questioned Homer’s desire to gamble on professional football. When Homer told her that it makes the games more exciting, Lisa was confused. “What could be more exciting than the savage ballet that is pro football?” she asked. Homer replied with a question of his own, “You like ice cream, don’t you?” He asked, “And don’t you like ice cream better when it’s covered in hot fudge? And mounds of whipped cream?” Well, I ask you, you like the NFL, don’t you? And don’t you like the NFL better when it’s covered in fantasy leagues? And office pools? And Super Bowl parties?

Don’t get me wrong, I know there are plenty of people whose interest in fantasy football leagues and casual betting stems from their interest in the NFL, and not the other way around. There were plenty of people who watched every game, every Sunday, before there were all the extracurricular activities. In fact, there are plenty of people who still do. But with an estimated 30 million people playing fantasy football every year, it is a shrinking population.

I liken it to fishing. If you ask the average guy if he likes fishing, he will likely say, “sure,” because when he thinks of fishing, he thinks of being in the sun with his buddies on a chartered boat in close proximity to a cooler full of beer. Oh, and incidentally having a fishing pole in his hands. That same guy is not likely going to be interested in sitting on a pier, alone, waiting for the tide to move at five in the morning, let alone wading. Similarly, the average guy would probably not sit on a couch by himself watching an out of market game if he didn’t have something else riding on it.

I know the NFL was doing fine before the popularity of fantasy sports, and would likely continue to prosper without it. But given my generation’s short attention span, it is not surprising that there are no less than seven different fantasy games available for play on the NFL’s website alone, including a game targeting the six to fifteen year old demographic, entitled PPK+. On January 25, NFL.com posted a mock fantasy draft for the 2008 season — a little over seven months before the actual season.

I’m not saying that there is anything wrong with fantasy football or any of the rest of it. In fact, I play fantasy football. But I am keenly aware that without fantasy football, I would not be interested in a game featuring the Bengals and the Cardinals, unless I picked the Bengals in my office pool.  The NFL is willing to bet that you would not be either.

Note: this is something I wrote hoping to use it for something else. I decided to go ahead and put it on here.

January 11, 2008

They were undefeated. 12-0. They won their conference championship. They were granted a BCS bowl bid, a long anticipated matchup with the University of Georgia and finally, most importantly, a chance to prove all the doubters wrong. The Hawaii Rainbows were hoping to be this year’s Boise State. Now, in the upcoming 2008 college football season, no one is going to want to be last year’s Hawaii.

The Rainbows were thrashed by the Bulldogs of Georgia, losing by a final score of 41-10. Their star quarterback, hoping to be a first round draft pick, went from big man on campus to men among boys in one night, after he was sacked seven times and threw three interceptions, all while throwing for a career low 169 yards and no touchdowns.

After the embarrassment of the Sugar Bowl the Rainbows were sent back to Hawaii, licking there wounds, and wondering what had just happened. Their attempt to regroup was cut mercilessly short as just fives day after the loss, coach June Jones was surprisingly wooed away to another college head coaching position. And not even a prestigious one. They lost their beloved coach to Southern Methodist University, whose once proud football program was given the one and only “death penalty” in the history of intercollegiate athletics for rules violation by the NCAA in 1987.

In the five previous years before Jones’ arrival in Hawaii, the Warriors won a total of 12 games. Under Jones, Hawaii compiled a record of 76-41, including 2 Western Athletic Conference Championships, a combined record of 23-4 over the past two seasons and four bowl appearances in the past five years. SMU won exactly one game last year. Not exactly what most would consider a step up for Jones.

Losing their coach to such a downtrodden program was too much for the University of Hawaii to stomach. They fired athletic director, Herman Frazier, one day later. Reportedly, Frazier’s inability to negotiate a contract extension with Junes was a major factor in the decision to release him and buy out the two remaining years on his contract.

In one week Hawaii went from its first BCS bowl bid to a team without a coach, without an athletic director, and facing an off season in which they must now replace both, as well as Colt Brennan, who threw more career touchdown passes as Hawaii’s quarterback than anyone in the NCAA history.

In the year prior to June Jones taking over Hawaii, the rainbows did not win a game. In Jone’s first year, the Warriors improved to 9-4, the biggest single season turnaround in NCAA division one history. Jones said his reason for choosing to leave Hawaii for SMU was the challenge of turning their program around. That is what he came to Hawaii to do, and he did accomplish that. But one must wonder if Jones now believes that his dream of turning Hawaii into one of the nation’s elite programs was just that – a dream.