TimKesten.com

Florida’s Men’s basketball team lost Thursday night 80-69 to Alabama in the first round of the SEC tournament. The loss, coupled with an unimpressive showing in conference play, will all but certainly leave the Gators out of the NCAA tournament, ending a decade long string of NCAA tournament appearances, a string that started in the 1998-1999 season when the current Gators were still in elementary school.

Florida coach Billy Donovan was not interested in hiding his frustration with his young team after the loss. He questioned his player’s commitment to doing what it takes to win, including playing defense. “I’m not necessarily really that excited about these guys being sophomores, to be honest,” Donovan said of his freshmen. “I don’t think people change a whole lot, and I don’t think you’ve seen the basketball team change at all this year. So it’s hard for me to get overly thrilled or excited.” Donovan was also disappointed that freshman Chandler Parsons told reporters that Florida was not ready to play Thursday night. “I don’t know how you can’t just be excited,” Donovan said, referring to playing in the conference tournament.

This is where the “what ifs?” come in. A little less than a year ago, Billy Donovan was not the coach of the Florida Gators. A little less than a year ago, Billy Donovan was the head coach of the Orlando Magic. Florida’s athletic director, Jeremy Foley, was landing in Richmond, Virginia to offer Anthony Grant, the head basketball coach at Virginia Commonwealth University, the head coaching position at Florida. Then everything came to a screeching halt. Donovan had a change of heart and realized that his was in Gainesville. The Magic released him from his contract, Foley left Richmond without offering Grant the job and everything went back to the way it was a few days before.

So what if? What if Billy Donovan had stayed on as the coach of the Orlando Magic? What if Anthony Grant had inherited this group, possibly without some of the key freshmen, who might have decided to go elsewhere after learning of Donovan’s departure? One must assume if someone with the reputation and distinction of Donovan had trouble reaching these players that a first year coach like Grant would not have done any better. If the ten year long stretch of NCAA tournament bids had ended on Grant’s watch – in his first year as head coach – instead of on Donovan’s, how patient would the Gator Nation be? Billy Donovan has understandably earned a considerable level of faith from the Florida faithful, what with that whole “back to back national championships” thing. Grant would likely not have been given that same benefit of the doubt. How many boosters and sportswriters would be panicking right now? The consensus would likely have been that “if only Donovan had stayed” the Gators would have at least made the tournament.

That the cupboard was left bare after five players left for the NBA and one other graduated as the all time leader in three point shooting in the NCAA tournament would not have been enough of an excuse. Ask Ron Zook how understanding Florida fans are when a new head coach takes over a team with less talent than the several previous squads. Zook took over the University of Florida’s football team in 2002 after Steve Spurrier left the Gators for the NFL. Spurrier admitted that he left the school with a diminished pool of talent compared to the teams he coached during most of his tenure, when Florida compiled a record of 122-27-1 and won six SEC championships. That admission didn’t matter much to the fans of the Gators, some of whom constructed the website, www.fireronzook.com before Zook ever coached a single game. If now, under Anthony Grant, Florida had become the first team since Kansas in 1988 to miss the NCAA tournament only one year after winning it, would www.fireanthonygrant.com have been that far behind?

Florida is extremely young. The Gators have only one upperclassman that plays significant minutes, junior Walter Hodge. Compare that to the rotation they utilized last year when four juniors (Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green) and a senior (Lee Humphreys) started and their sixth man (Chris Richard) was a senior. But what if the Gators had been able to keep some of their talent in Gainesville? Never mind that Noah, Horford, Brewer, and Green could have come back for their senior year, we all knew that was not going to happen. Forget about them. What about David Huertas? What if David Huertas was playing for Florida?

Unless you either were following the Gators closely before the championship seasons or you are an Ole Miss fan, you probably do not know who David Huertas is. If you do happen to fall into one of those two categories you may remember that Huertas, a guard, played his freshman year at Florida but transferred to Ole Miss in search of more playing time and more shots. It’s hard to blame him. Had he returned as a sophomore, he would have been fourth on the Gator’s depth chart behind Humphreys, a senior, and Green, a junior, as well as fellow sophomore, Walter Hodge. Not knowing that Green would leave after his junior year, Huertas was facing a scenario where he probably wouldn’t get a chance to start until his senior year. Had Huertas stayed, however, he would likely have been Florida’s starting shooting guard this year which would have been his junior year. And Florida could have used him. The Gators could have used his 10.4 points per game, particularly his 19 points per game in the month of March, a month in which Florida has lost four games and won none. Florida, a team that started two freshmen guards, both of whom averaged more than thirty minutes per game, could have used the 25 minutes a game that Huertas gave the Rebels. Most importantly, however, Florida could have used another upperclassman in their locker room, as the Gators youth was continually exposed in the form of Florida’s lack of toughness, lack of concentration and poor defense.

Huertas is among a long list of early departures and no-shows at Florida under Billy Donovan, including Mike Miller, Kwame Brown, James White, Anthony Roberson, Matt Walsh, Ryan Applby and the four juniors from last year. That is a fact of life in college basketball. Had David Huertas stayed, would the Gators be championship contenders? Almost certainly not. Would they have been a better team? Almost certainly so. Most importantly, it might have pushed them over the hump and in to the NCAA tournament for the eleventh straight season.

“If” is both a powerful word and a completely benign one. It allows us to speculate, to wonder, to hypothesize, but it doesn’t change anything in reality or in the present. What is certain is that Anthony Grant is still at the Virginia Commonwealth University and David Huertas is playing for Ole Miss and not Florida.

That Anthony Grant did not come to Florida is probably best for all involved, at least in the present day. VCU is 24-7 and still has a shot at getting into the NCAA tournament, Florida, in all likelihood, does not. Grant will get another chance to coach an elite program; he is being mentioned in connections with the current openings at LSU and South Carolina. It certainly was not Florida or bust for him. If Anthony Grant chooses, VCU will not be the pinnacle of his coaching career.

In the case of Huertas, sure, Florida will probably not make the NCAA tournament this year without him, but Ole Miss will probably not make the NCAA tournament with him either. Huertas will have the next two seasons to prove if he is better off without the Gators. It seems evident that the Gators are not, at least currently, better off without him.

It was supposed to be smooth sailing. At Florida, a three loss season is not anything to be proud of, but then their team was young and “just wait until next year!” Florida was supposed to cruise into and through the Capitol One Bowl over Michigan, setting up the countdowns until the 2008 season and a probable preseason number one ranking. The problem was while Florida may have been on cruise control, their opponent was not.

Florida ran into a Michigan team that out-prepared, outplayed, outhit, out-blocked, and out-hearted them. Florida’s defensive secondary, which seemed to show improvement late in the season, was torched for 373 yards through the air, mostly to Michigan’s receivers who were bigger and more physical than Florida’s cornerbacks. Florida’s front four that had been outstanding late in the season at stopping the run gave up 151 yards on the ground, 129 to Mike Hart. Their offense which was among the best in the country averaging better than 40 points a game looked out of sync at times and could not come through when it mattered most. The Gators converted only two of eleven on third down and could not move the ball when they had a chance to come from behind late in the game. Florida had the ball, trailing by six points with 2:10 remaining, and could not get their offense moving. The game ended with four straight incomplete passes by Tim Tebow.

Conventional wisdom says that the Gators will be better next year. Tebow and his Heisman trophy will be back. Percy Harvin, who may be the most dangerous player in college football, will be back. Emmanuel Moody, a Sophomore transfer from USC, will be eligible and could give the Gators a solid number one running back for the first time since Ciatrick Fason left for the NFL draft after his Junior year in 2004. Florida’s young defense will be a year older, and should be a year tougher, a year smarter, and overall a year better, despite how it performed against Michigan.

Conventional wisdom assumes that the loss of Derrick Harvey, Andre Caldwell, Tony Joiner and Cornelius Ingram will not hurt the Gators. Conventional wisdom assumes that the Gators will not miss the 30.5 tackles for a loss and the 19.5 sacks that Harvey produced over the past two seasons. Conventional wisdom assumes that the Gators can absorb the loss of the programs all-time leading receiver in Andre Caldwell, and the loss of Tony Joiner’s leadership in the defensive secondary. Conventional wisdom assumes that Aaron Hernandez, Florida’s talented young tight end, will be able to fill the shoes of Cornelius Ingram and the seven touchdowns passes he caught in the 2007 season. Most importantly, conventional wisdom assumes that without these players the Gators will not suffer any more of the mental and emotional lags that they suffered not only in the Capitol One Bowl, but in their losses to Georgia and Auburn earlier this season.

That is a lot to assume.

On the eve of the Heisman trophy presentation, we finally know who will be making the trip to New York. So, who’s going to take home the award? Honestly, I don’t know. Nothing would surprise me at this point. Tim Tebow seems to be the favorite, having taken home both the Maxwell award and Davey O’Brien award last night, although Darren McFadden was named the player of the year by the Walter Camp Foundation, and is hardly an underdog.

Obviously, all four finalists have impressive statistics, but statistics alone do not win the Heisman. Numbers have to be aided by adherence to the unofficial Heisman rules. A player’s class, conference, record and other factors are given consideration; whether they should or not is an entirely different conversation. In alphabetical order, here are the resumes of those who will be in attendance at the Downtown Athletic club and how those unofficial rules will affect their chances.

Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii

The Statistical Argument: Of the three quarterbacks nominated, Brennan is tops in completion percentage (71.4), touchdown passes (38), and passing yards (4,174). However, his 14 interceptions are also the most of the group.

The Unofficial Rules… both help and hurt his cause. Brennan is undefeated this year, something none of the other candidates can claim. A player’s record matters most to the Heisman committee when that player is a quarterback. This would help his cause much more if he did not play in the WAC, which is not a BCS conference. His “Heisman moment” came in the last game of the regular season, as he threw five touchdown passes, compiled 442 yards, completed 42 of 50 passes, and did not throw an interception while leading the Warriors back from a 21 point deficit in a win over Washington. He is a senior and has an impressive body of work from previous years including holding the NCAA record for most career touchdowns. A “life time achievement” Heisman isn’t out of the question.

Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri

The Statistical Argument: Daniel’s 4,170 passing yards, 69.7 passing percentage, and 33 touchdowns are all among the seven best in the country. Though he threw 10 interceptions, he attempted 534 passes. No one who attempted as many passes threw fewer interceptions, and his average of 53.4 pass attempts per interception is the best of the three quarterbacks.

The Unofficial Rules… mostly help Daniel. He plays in a BCS conference and is a junior. His only two losses came to Big 12 conference champ Oklahoma and he was one game away from starting at quarterback in the national championship. The Big 12 championship game could have been his Heisman moment, but he came up short, and that will likely hurt his chances of winning the trophy.

Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

The Statistical Argument: McFadden rushed for 1,725 yards, the fourth most in the country. He also averaged 5.7 yard per carry, while playing in the SEC, arguably the best conference in the country. His 15 rushing touchdowns were the most in that conference by a running back. Taking many snaps in a single back formation, he also threw four touchdown passes.

The Unofficial Rules… probably boost McFadden’s chances more than any of the other players in this group. Playing in a BCS conference as a junior doesn’t hurt. Coming second in last year’s Heisman voting helps. Running for 206 yards and three touchdowns, while throwing a touchdown pass against then number one LSU in the final game of his season may have sealed it.

Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

The Statistical Argument: Tebow is the only quarterback in NCAA history to both rush for 20 touchdowns and throw for 20 touchdowns. He holds the SEC record for rushing touchdowns at any position. He passed for 3,132 yards, while completing 68.5% of his passes. His completion percentage and 29 touchdown passes are in the top ten nationally and his 177.85 efficiency rating is second in the nation.

The Unofficial Rules… hurt Tebow for the most part. Tebow plays in a BCS conference, but his three losses in that conference are too much for some voters to overlook. That Tebow is a sophomore is his second strike. No sophomore has ever won the award, even though there have been some deserving candidates. Like one Darren McFadden in 2007.

(Ed. Note:  I originally wrote this October 22, 2007)

The Heisman trophy is awarded annually to the most outstanding college football player. Eight weeks into the college football season, Florida’s Tim Tebow might very well fit that description. Tebow is leading the nation in passing efficiency (177.48) and has accounted for 27 touchdowns and only three interceptions, while either throwing or carrying the ball in over two thirds of the plays for an offense averaging over 40 points a game. Despite all of this, Tim Tebow will not win the Heisman.

Just ask former Florida quarterback Rex Grossman. Yes, that Rex Grossman. It may be hard for the casual observer to remember, but, in 2001, Grossman was the best college football player in the country. At least that is what the Associated Press thought. That organization named Grossman the National Player of the Year. They also named him the first team All- America quarterback over fellow quarterback and Heisman winner Eric Crouch.

Grossman’s numbers were gaudy. He averaged over 350 yards passing and better than three touchdowns per game. He led the nation in passing efficiency and total offense per game. He accounted for eleven more touchdowns than Crouch, while piling up over 1300 more total yards of offense. But he didn’t win the Heisman for two reasons. Grossman was a sophomore playing for a two loss Florida team. Sound familiar?

Tebow has put up his impressive numbers while playing five of his first seven games against teams that played in a bowl last year. Matt Ryan, many people’s front-runner to win the Heisman, has played three teams that went to a bowl last year, and one of those was Notre Dame. Boston College’s bowl subdivision opponents have a combined record of 20 wins and 25 losses. Tebow, on the other hand has played teams with a combined record of 29-17. For comparison, Ryan’s efficiency rating is over forty points lower than Tebow’s, and he has accounted for nine less touchdowns than Tebow, while throwing three more interceptions.

None of that matters. Tebow is a sophomore. Ryan is a senior. Tebow’s Gators, while playing vastly superior competition, have two losses. Ryan’s Eagles are undefeated. While the Heisman trophy is supposed to be awarded to the most outstanding player in college football, the truth is it is awarded to the best player on a top five team, provided that player is an upperclassmen. A sophomore has never won the Heisman. In fact, Grossman was only the fifth sophomore to finish second in the voting.

Don’t feel bad for Tim Tebow. He has a very good chance to fare better in the next two years than Grossman did in his junior and senior years; his head coach and surrounding talent are not likely to be yanked out from underneath him, as was Grossman’s following Steve Spurrier’s departure from Florida. Tebow will likely be the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman next year, and a back to back Heisman run isn’t out of the question. Just don’t expect it this year. That is okay with Tebow. The same guy who was once quoted saying, “I’m not better than anyone else just because I play football,” had the right thing to say again when it came to the Heisman Trophy. “I’d rather have a chance to play in Atlanta than be in New York,” he said. Neither is a certainty, but Gator fans should be satisfied to know that at least the former is a possibility.

On an unusually warm October day, even for Florida, I attended a University of Florida football game with a very important guest, my older sister. It was 2001, my Senior year at Florida. I had been to countless Gator football games, but this game, I will never forget. This game, as it turned out, proved me right about something that I had suspected for a long time. College football is special. My sister was a three sport all conference athlete in high school and briefly played sports at the collegiate level, before she realized that the drain on a collegiate athlete took too much from everything else she wished to experience as a college student.
By the time she attended that game with me she had grown tired of sports in general, having to spend holidays with her sports-crazed brothers and cousins, listening to discussions over turkey and gravy about who should start, who should be fired, and why there should be a college playoff.
And so my sister came to visit me for the weekend. I was 21, enjoying what looked to be shaping up as a possible national championship run. She was 24, enjoying what looked to be a weekend tolerating her little brother and his hard partying friends. I bought two tickets for us. In those days you could still use student tickets even if you were not a student, but I couldn’t find any. No matter, I was sure my sister wouldn’t have wanted to stand and cheer the entire four quarters anyway, as is required of everyone positioned in the student section. So we sat in the corner of the north end zone as Florida racked up a large lead on Vanderbilt in this homecoming game. Stacy, my sister, got a kick out of Mr. Twobits, as he led each section of the stadium, “All for the Gators stand up and holler!” She got a kick out of the student section leading the entire stadium, all 85,000 plus back then, begging the alumni with “ORANGE!… ORANGE!… ORANGE!…,” Until the alumni section obliged by repeating “BLUE!,” each time.
At halftime we were up big, and I figured Stacy would probably be over all of it. I asked her if she wanted to leave, go get something to eat and head back to the house. She replied, “Not unless you want to.” I thought she was just being polite, so I asked her, “Are you sure? We don’t have to stay just for me.” She replied, “No, this is fun.”
So we stayed for the entire game. We cheered. She followed my lead when it came to “the chomp” and did her best to keep up with the rest of us as we yelled, following the cues from the band. We swayed back and forth between the third and fourth quarters as the rest of the 85,000 plus and I sang “We are the boys.” Stacy didn’t know the lyrics but she swayed with us anyway, and laughed heavily at the end of the song. Relishing, as someone who couldn’t care less about sports, “that is so great,” she said through chuckles, laughing at the hokeyness of it all. It is hokey. We all know it’s hokey. She knew that we knew it was hokey, and yet all of us sang with so much joy and passion, any skepticism didn’t stand a chance. We do it every Saturday from September to November, and we wouldn’t miss it for anything.
My sister thinks that my obsession with college football, and my family’s obsession with college football are both annoying and ridiculous. I don’t blame her. I think it’s beautiful, but deep down even I know it’s ridiculous. Yet I can watch plays from last season or ten seasons ago, and still get goose bumps. I see the blocked field goal against South Carolina that saved our national championship season three years ago or a not-so-fleet-of-foot Danny Wuerfell running for a touchdown against Florida State in the National Championship of 1996, and both make me proud to be part of something bigger than myself. Suffice it to say, Florida football is fourth in my life, but only because God, my family and my friends are so incredibly important to me.
As we swayed back and forth in the Florida sun almost eight years ago, my sister had a look of amusement on her face. She didn’t know the words that the rest of us were singing, but she could sense the joy that was behind the song. “Through all kinds of weather we’ll all stick together, for F-L-O-R-I-D-A.” She didn’t care about the score, just the pageantry. Just the passion. Just the conviction behind all of us chanting, “It’s great! To be! A Florida gator!”
In that moment, if not in any other, she saw why it’s great to be a college football fan.
Just don’t ask her to admit it.