On the eve of the Heisman trophy presentation, we finally know who will be making the trip to New York. So, who’s going to take home the award? Honestly, I don’t know. Nothing would surprise me at this point. Tim Tebow seems to be the favorite, having taken home both the Maxwell award and Davey O’Brien award last night, although Darren McFadden was named the player of the year by the Walter Camp Foundation, and is hardly an underdog.
Obviously, all four finalists have impressive statistics, but statistics alone do not win the Heisman. Numbers have to be aided by adherence to the unofficial Heisman rules. A player’s class, conference, record and other factors are given consideration; whether they should or not is an entirely different conversation. In alphabetical order, here are the resumes of those who will be in attendance at the Downtown Athletic club and how those unofficial rules will affect their chances.
Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii
The Statistical Argument: Of the three quarterbacks nominated, Brennan is tops in completion percentage (71.4), touchdown passes (38), and passing yards (4,174). However, his 14 interceptions are also the most of the group.
The Unofficial Rules… both help and hurt his cause. Brennan is undefeated this year, something none of the other candidates can claim. A player’s record matters most to the Heisman committee when that player is a quarterback. This would help his cause much more if he did not play in the WAC, which is not a BCS conference. His “Heisman moment” came in the last game of the regular season, as he threw five touchdown passes, compiled 442 yards, completed 42 of 50 passes, and did not throw an interception while leading the Warriors back from a 21 point deficit in a win over Washington. He is a senior and has an impressive body of work from previous years including holding the NCAA record for most career touchdowns. A “life time achievement” Heisman isn’t out of the question.
Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri
The Statistical Argument: Daniel’s 4,170 passing yards, 69.7 passing percentage, and 33 touchdowns are all among the seven best in the country. Though he threw 10 interceptions, he attempted 534 passes. No one who attempted as many passes threw fewer interceptions, and his average of 53.4 pass attempts per interception is the best of the three quarterbacks.
The Unofficial Rules… mostly help Daniel. He plays in a BCS conference and is a junior. His only two losses came to Big 12 conference champ Oklahoma and he was one game away from starting at quarterback in the national championship. The Big 12 championship game could have been his Heisman moment, but he came up short, and that will likely hurt his chances of winning the trophy.
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
The Statistical Argument: McFadden rushed for 1,725 yards, the fourth most in the country. He also averaged 5.7 yard per carry, while playing in the SEC, arguably the best conference in the country. His 15 rushing touchdowns were the most in that conference by a running back. Taking many snaps in a single back formation, he also threw four touchdown passes.
The Unofficial Rules… probably boost McFadden’s chances more than any of the other players in this group. Playing in a BCS conference as a junior doesn’t hurt. Coming second in last year’s Heisman voting helps. Running for 206 yards and three touchdowns, while throwing a touchdown pass against then number one LSU in the final game of his season may have sealed it.
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
The Statistical Argument: Tebow is the only quarterback in NCAA history to both rush for 20 touchdowns and throw for 20 touchdowns. He holds the SEC record for rushing touchdowns at any position. He passed for 3,132 yards, while completing 68.5% of his passes. His completion percentage and 29 touchdown passes are in the top ten nationally and his 177.85 efficiency rating is second in the nation.
The Unofficial Rules… hurt Tebow for the most part. Tebow plays in a BCS conference, but his three losses in that conference are too much for some voters to overlook. That Tebow is a sophomore is his second strike. No sophomore has ever won the award, even though there have been some deserving candidates. Like one Darren McFadden in 2007.