John Smoltz probably did not need 3000 strikeouts to get into baseball’s Hall of Fame. Up until this point, it wasn’t really a matter of “if” but “when” for the eight time All Star. That he is now the only pitcher in Major League Baseball history to save 100 games while also striking out 3000 batters, should ensure that Cooperstown welcomes Smoltz at its earliest opportunity, five years after his illustrious career ends.
To truly understand the career of John Smoltz one must do something that baseball fans don’t normally like to do. They must ignore the desire for the signature statistic. They must ignore the milestones. The 500 home runs, the 3000 hits. The 300 wins, the 300 saves. Unlike most first ballot Hall of Famers, Smoltz doesn’t have those milestone numbers. In fact, in cumulative numbers he’s not in the top ten of anything that really matters to Cooperstown. His 210 wins are tied for the 91st most. His 154 saves are tied for 61st most. His career earned run average of 3.25 is tied for the 273rd best (though no active player with at least 100 career decisions is in the top 100).
In fact, the only category in which Smoltz has a chance of cracking the top ten is strikeouts and that alone would not be enough to ensure a place in Cooperstown. Smoltz is currently 16th with 3011 strikeouts – 331 behind Phil Niekro for tenth. Considering that Smoltz struck out 408 batters over the 2006 and 2007 season and that he has already struck out 36 this year, it is not unreasonable to think that Smoltz could catch Niekro and claim the tenth spot. However, Burt Blyleven retired after striking out 3701 batters, the fifth most of all time, and is still not in the Hall 16 years after he called it quits.
It is only when you look at the culmination of Smoltz’s career that you can understand why he almost certainly will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. In everything he did, he excelled. He first excelled as a starter. In the first ten seasons (not including the strike-shortened season of 1994) when Smoltz was a full-time starter for Atlanta he averaged 15 wins. Then, when an injury forced Smoltz to change his pitching style and pitching role for four seasons he excelled as a closer. In the three seasons when Smoltz held that job full-time for Atlanta he averaged 48 saves while compiling more strikeouts than innings pitched in all three seasons. Finally, when Atlanta’s coaching staff was convinced that Smoltz could once again hold up to the strain of starting, he responded by posting a record of 44 and 24 and an ERA of 3.22 during three seasons in which he pitched over 200 innings each.
Of the past 18 years in which Smoltz has pitched in Major League baseball, he has posted an ERA under 4.00 in 17, barely missing a perfect 18 for 18 because of the aforementioned season of 1994 when his ERA was 4.14. He has had six seasons in which his ERA was under 3.00, including 1996 when he posted an ERA of 2.94, a record of 24 and 8 and won the Cy Young, and 2003 when he posted the best ERA of his career, a measly 1.12, while saving 45 games. Not to mention that he is also one of the greatest post-season pitchers of all time. He has compiled a playoff record of 15 and 4, with an ERA of 2.65 while striking out 194 batters in 207 innings pitched. Combine that with a strike out per nine innings pitched ratio of 7.984, which is better than all but two current Hall of Fame pitchers and a Roberto Clemente award in 2005 for strong work in the community and John Smoltz should be guaranteed a spot in Cooperstown.
Although with a current record of 3 and 2, an ERA of 2.00 and more strikeouts than innings pitched this season, there’s no hurry. Whenever you’re ready, Mr. Smoltz. Cooperstown can wait.