There will be 18 new head coaches in the FBS in 2008. Rich Rodriguez took over at Michigan and Bill Stewart took over for him at West Virginia. Houston Nutt left Arkansas for Mississippi and Bobby Petrino returned from the NFL to coach Arkansas. June Jones left Hawaii, after guiding them to their first BCS bowl game, in order to Coach Southern Methodist University, a team that was 1-11 last year. Paul Johnson brings his triple option from Navy to Georgia Tech, and David Cutcliffe brings his expertise in working with quarterbacks to Duke. The last time the Blue Devils won the ACC was in 1989 when they had another quarterback guru as their head coach, Steve Spurrier. Bo Pelini is charged with bringing the black shirt defense back to Nebraska and UCLA is hoping that Rick Neuheisel, who was fired from Washington after he admitted to gambling on college basketball, isn’t charged with anything at all.
Most likely to succeed (immediately): Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech and Bo Pelini, Nebraska.
Yeah, I know Bill Stewart is going to succeed at West Virginia. He takes over a team that was one rivalry game away from going to the national championship last year. I know he guided the Mountaineers to a win in the Fiesta Bowl over Oklahoma in Rich Rodriguez’s absence. I know West Virginia returns a ton of talent despite the loss of Steve Slaton to the NFL. I also know Stewart isn’t going to a new school, he’s stepping into a new position. If Stewart doesn’t win at least eight games it will be a surprise. So I choose to focus on those coaches who are completely new at their schools, those that have to turn around a program, not continue the success of their predecessor.
Petrino and Nutt inherit talented teams, but the SEC is just too loaded for them to step in and enjoy immediate success (ask Nick Saban, who accepted a $32 million dollar contract at Alabama and proceeded to coach the Tide to a fifth place finish in the SEC west). They’ll probably be above .500, and be invited to a bowl, but in places like Arkansas and Mississippi that is mediocrity, not success. UCLA’s schedule will likely prove to be too much for Rick Neuhiesel, at least this season. The Bruin’s will play road games against BYU, Oregon and Arizona State as well as home games against Tennessee, Fresno State, Oregon State and USC. Paul Johnson inherits a Georgia Tech team that went 7-5 last year and it will be interesting to see how ACC defenses deal with the triple option. Standing in Johnson’s way are road games at Boston College, at Virginia Tech, at Clemson and at Georgia.
Nebraska could not stop anybody last season. Eight of the twelve teams that Nebraska played last year scored more than thirty points against them. Enter former Nebraska defensive coordinator Bo Pelini. In 2003, Pelini’s first season at Nebraska, the Husker’s defense was ranked eleventh nationally, improved from 55th the year before. Nebraska had very little trouble scoring last year, averaging over 34 points per game. And though they will have to replace quarterback Sam Keller, they only play five teams that had winning records last year compared to seven teams that didn’t.
Most Likely to fail (immediately): Rich Rodriguez, Michigan.
Rodriguez isn’t starting from scratch in building his program at Michigan, but he might be better off if he was. Quarterback Chad Henne, Running Back Mike Hart and receiver Mario Manningham are all on NFL rosters now. In fact, the offense only returns three starters and it is likely that a freshman will start at quarterback. Rodriguez must make the square peg players that are returning fit into his round whole offense as he installs the spread option at a program where the previous definition of innovation was the forward pass. Michigan plays Utah, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan State at home and Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue and Ohio State on the road. They return all four defensive linemen, and that will be a strength, but they will not have nearly enough talent or experience to match up with that schedule. At least not this year.
The Wild Card: June Jones, SMU.
When Jones stepped in at the University of Hawaii, their program was in disarray. The then Rainbow Warriors had lost eighteen games in a row including all twelve the year before. In one year, Jones orchestrated the largest turnaround in NCAA football history, and Hawaii won nine games including beating Oregon State in the Oahu Bowl. SMU has some of the foundation laid for success, but they finished 1-11 last season, with no conference victories while giving up almost 40 points and over 300 passing yards per game last season. Jones has never been known as a defensive minded coach; Hawaii allowed over 28 points per game last season against division one opponents. Combine that with the suspensions of returning starting quarterback Justin Willis and returning strong safety Bryce Hudman as well as uncertainty at the offensive line, which is particularly crucial in Jones’ offense (remember the Sugar Bowl?) and lack of proven depth at receiver and it’s hard to bet on Jones performing another record turn around this year. I wouldn’t bet against him either.