TimKesten.com

For most powerhouse programs in college football the first weak of the season means playing a team with more words in its school’s name than professional prospects on the field.  Most title-contending teams ease into competition with the likes of the Middle Tennessee State University Blue Raiders or the Red Hawks of Southeastern Missouri State University.  This year, however, a handful of teams have scheduled tough, non-conference opponents for their first game of the season, and should make the first weekend a memorable and exciting one.

The season starts on Thursday night as South Carolina travels to Raleigh to take on N.C. State, and even though this is an SEC vs. ACC match up it is not the marquee game of the night.  That takes place later when Boise State hosts Oregon on the blue turf.  Boise State has lost twice at home this decade.  Oregon will be looking for revenge as Boise State beat them last season in Eugene.  Both teams are ranked in the top twenty, and Boise State has serious aspirations of crashing the BCS this year.  If the Broncos can get by Oregon they would likely be favored in every game for the rest of the year and might be playing after New Year’s.

Saturday will start with plenty of laughers and blowouts, but at 3:30 things will finally get serious as Georgia plays at Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys are a popular pick to stir things up in the Big 12, much like Texas Tech did last year.  They return quarterback Zach Robinson, wide receiver Dez Bryant and running back Kendall Hunter, arguably the three most important players in an offense that averaged over 41 points per game last season.  Georgia, conversely, has to replace their two most important offensive players, Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford, who were both first round draft picks.  If Oklahoma State can beat Georgia, they will have a very good chance of being 7-0 when they play Texas on Halloween.

All eyes will turn to the Georgia Dome Saturday night when fifth ranked Alabama plays seventh ranked Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A College Kickoff game.  Alabama took part in this game last season as an underdog to Clemson who entered the season ranked ninth in the nation.  Alabama beat Clemson soundly and rose from 24th to 13th in the nation.  Two months later, Dabo Swinney had replaced coach Tommy Bowden at Clemson and Alabama had replaced Texas as the number one ranked team in college football.  Virginia Tech is hoping to win its third straight ACC championship and fourth in the six years since the Hokies joined the conference.  This will finally be Tyrod Taylor’s chance to shine, as he will no longer have to split time at quarterback with Sean Glennon.  Taylor is an athletic quarterback who has run for more touchdowns in his career than he has thrown.   If the Hokies hope to beat the Crimson Tide, and contend on the national level, they will need Taylor to be more consistent and more productive through the air.  For the Tide this will be a real test for their revamped offensive line, which, without tackle Andre Smith was dominated by Utah in the Sugar Bowl.  The winner of this game will undoubtedly enter the conversation about national title contenders.

With the NFL not starting until the following week, there are two intriguing match ups on Monday to finish off the weekend.  First, in the afternoon Cincinnati travels to Rutgers in a Big East conference game.  Greg Schiano has done a great job making Rutgers relevant, yet for all his success in Piscataway, the Scarlet Knights have yet to win a conference title or play in a BCS bowl game.  Many believe that this is the year they will, and a win over Cincinnati would certainly be a step in the right direction.  Cincinnati has enjoyed a bit of rebirth under coach Brian Kelly, as they won eleven games last year and went to a BCS bowl as the Big East champions.  This year, however, they return only one starter on defense.  This game should serve as a good barometer for both teams.

Later that night, Florida State hosts in-state, in-conference and hated rival Miami (FL).  This Monday night game used to feature rosters full of players that would one day play on Monday nights more regularly.  Now both programs are trying to recapture the magic that once made them two of the most dominant programs in the country.   There is little doubt that Miami needs a win in this game more than Florida State.  The Hurricanes start their season with a brutal stretch, facing Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma after their meeting with the Seminoles.  Miami will be handing the reigns to sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris, as last year’s often maligned starter, Robert Marve, is no longer with the team.  Harris played quite a bit last season, but he will have to learn and improve very quickly for the Hurricanes, or an 0-4 start for 2009 is not out of the question.  Red shirt junior Christian Ponder returns at quarterback for the Seminoles.   Ponder showed flashes last season, but he will need to limit his mistakes as he threw almost as many interceptions (13) last season as touchdowns (14).  The Seminoles will also have to find someone to catch the ball as their top two receivers from a year ago are no longer with the team.  This game may not mean as much to the rest of the country as it once did, but the ‘Canes and the ‘Noles still don’t like each other and it should be fun game to watch.

Dear Golden Domers,

I know this time of the year is filled with excitement for football fans.  I know you are just itching to get that six loss taste out of your mouths.  I know you think this is the year that Jimmy Clausen finally puts it all together.  I know you have BCS dreams.  I think you are getting a little ahead of yourselves.

I realize that you play a very manageable (read: weak) schedule, that you have some talent at wide receiver, that you return seventeen starters, including ten offensive starters.  The thing is I still don’t think you’re going to be that good.  Sure, because of the schedule you’ll win some games, but all that will just be window dressing if and when you get pounded by USC and whatever team you play in your bowl game (because, let’s face it, no matter how mediocre you play this season, you are going to a bowl game).

Let’s look at the schedule.  In week one you host Nevada.  This is not a gimme.  Nevada went 7-6 last season (same as you) and returns sixteen starters, including seven all conference selections.  This is their Superbowl.  If this wasn’t a home game for you, I would probably pick you to lose.  As it is, I’d say it’s a toss up.

In week two you travel to Michigan for what should be a pretty convincing win.  Michigan is a mess.   Coach Rich Rodriguez will eventually turn things around in Ann Arbor, but for now he still has a lot of square pegs and not a lot of athletes.

In week three you will be over-matched by Michigan State’s receiving core, provided that one of their talented sophomore quarterbacks emerges.  The Spartans return fifteen starters from a team that went 9-4 a year ago and finished one game back from the lead in the Big Ten.

Weeks four and five should produce wins at Purdue and against Washington, two teams that won four and zero games last year, respectively.  Both teams have first year coaches and Washington hasn’t won a game since November of 2007.

A bye week will give you time to prepare to be crushed by USC, a team that you haven’t beaten since 2001, and the following week you will probably lose to Boston College.  I know that both teams have uncertainty at quarterback, but USC would probably beat you with their third-string signal caller and Boston College returns four starters on the offensive line, as well as their top two running backs, so they probably won’t need much production from whoever is taking the snaps.

After you beat an absolutely horrible Washington State squad you host Navy, a team that infamously upset you two years ago, and a team that you beat by only six last season.  The Midshipmen led the nation in rushing last year, and have played in a bowl game six consecutive years.  Don’t expect much to change this year.  This one may be a shoot out like in 2007.

Next you travel to Pittsburgh for a game I do not seeing you winning.  The Panthers are a common pick to win the Big East this season and they return a strong offensive line and a tough defense from a team that went 9-3 for Dave Wannstedt last year.  With the loss of running back Donald Brown and quarterback Tyler Lorenzen, I think you will handle Connecticut.  But the Huskies have made it to two consecutive bowl games, so this one might not be easy.

In the final game of the regular season you play Stanford, a seemingly improving team under Jim Harbaugh.  The Cardinal’s defense was pretty bad last year, and even with the returning offensive skill players they have I think you will be able to outscore them.

So where does that leave you, Notre Dame fans.  I foresee losses against Michigan State, USC, Boston College and Pittsburgh, wins against Michigan, Purdue, Washington, Washington State, Connecticut and Stanford, and I think you will split against Nevada and Navy.  So that means 7 wins and five losses.   If you beat both Nevada and Navy, then you will have 8 wins and four losses.  But even then, no BCS.

The bottom line is the flawed system that is the BCS will do anything short of rewriting the rulebook to include you in one of its games, but eight wins just isn’t enough.  Can you get to nine?  It is possible.  But if you do, if you get invited to a BCS bowl game and get to play one of the nations elite teams, I promise you, Irish, it won’t be pretty.  Nine wins against bad teams does not make you a good team, but it may afford you the opportunity to be embarrassed by one.

Sincerely,

Tim Kesten

There is nothing we, as a society, like more than a rags to riches story more than a riches to rags to riches story.  We love to tear down our celebrities.   We love to watch the downfall of those who have been afforded more than us.  And we love to watch them pick themselves back up.  M.C. Hammer has a reality show, for God’s sake.

Michael Vick had everything.  He was the highest paid player in the NFL at one point, and he was an idiot.  He gave “the finger” to his adoring fans in Atlanta.  He was stopped in an airport for having a water bottle with trace amounts of marijuana.  He thought that he was above the law and, of course, he wasn’t.

He wasn’t above the law when he financed and took part in a dog fighting ring.  This dog fighting ring not only pitted man’s best friends against each other but also tortured and killed dogs.  Just to be clear, I love dogs.  I like dogs more than I like most people, to be honest.  I think that dogs are one of God’s greatest gifts to man.  They are loyal, they are caring, they want nothing more than the company of humans (well, that and something to eat).  The acts that Michael Vick carried out against those pit bulls were despicable.

That said, Michael Vick was punished.  He spent time in prison.  Not just 30 days or a few months, Michael Vick spent 23 months in prison.  The purpose of prison is to punish those who commit crimes, and Michael Vick has served his sentence.  Not to mention the fortune that he has lost because of his actions.

There is no solid evidence that there is still a place for Vick in the NFL, at least not as a starting quarterback.  He’s never completed more than 57% of his passes in a season, and his career passer rating is 75.7.  Many believe that he regressed in his last two seasons and two years away from the game may further diminished his skills.

With the emergence of the “wildcat” formation in the past year, he more likely will find a role as a situational back.  He is, after all the only NFL quarterback to run for 1,000 yards in a season.  If the single back formation bothers offensive coordinators when a running back is under center, it should be a nightmare to prepare for when the player taking the snaps is a quarterback.  But even as the “wildcat” trend seems to be Vick’s ticket back into the NFL, no team has publicly expressed interest in him, and most front offices have stated explicitly that they are not interested in Vick.

But that said, we should all hope that Vick takes the necessary actions, as well as avoiding others, to have at least a shot at reviving his career.  If he fails as a quarterback, or as an NFL player in general it won’t be nearly the tragedy than if he fails again as a human being, and never gets that opportunity.

If in the coming months, or ever, for that matter, Vick should show his arrogance again and runs afoul of the law for any reason, then we should all wish him the justice he deserves and no one should hope for anything other than what is coming for him.  In the meantime, we should all collectively be hoping that this young man has learned from his mistakes and his hubris, that he might take this opportunity to make himself a better person, to succeed where he once failed and to be a glaring, if not a shining example to those who would come after him.

We should all hope that Michael Vick has a chance to return to the NFL, in some capacity, and we should all hope that he succeeds.  We should all hope that Michael Vick never has another run-in with the law.  We should all hope that Michael Vick becomes a model citizen.  We should hope that he reaches out to troubled youth and that he supports animal rights.  We should hope that someone who falls so far, no matter how high a pedestal we once placed him on, can at least rise to redeem himself.