My apologies to Bowl Season, er, I mean Christmas but the start of college football season is the most wonderful time of the year. The anticipation is palpable. Hope dominates the conversations in the office and on the bulletin boards. Every downtrodden program believes they can pull off a turn around like Illinois did last year, who compiled a record of 9-4, and played in the Rose Bowl after winning only two games a season before. Every mediocre team dreams that they can make the leap to national prominence like Kansas did in 2007, winning twelve games, including the Orange Bowl, after playing .500 ball the season before. Rivals can’t wait for a chance at redemption and revenge and fans all around the country are telling anyone who will listen why “this is our year!” Most importantly, though, the wait is almost over. Soon it will no longer be “not-football season.” Over the next few days I’ll tell you what I think you should keep an eye on this fall. So, without further ado, I give you my 2008 college football preview.
How will the new head coaches fare in 2008? August 14, 2008
There will be 18 new head coaches in 2008. Rich Rodriguez took over at Michigan and Bill Stewart took over for him at West Virginia. Houston Nutt left Arkansas for Mississippi and Bobby Petrino returned from the NFL to coach Arkansas. June Jones left Hawaii, after guiding them to their first BCS bowl game, in order to Coach Southern Methodist University, a team that was 1-11 last year. Paul Johnson brings his triple option from Navy to Georgia Tech, and David Cutcliffe brings his expertise in working with quarterbacks to Duke. The last time the Blue Devils won the ACC was in 1989 when they had another quarterback’s guru as their head coach, Steve Spurrier. Bo Pelini is charged with bringing the black shirt defense back to Nebraska and UCLA is hoping that Rick Neuheisel, who was fired from Washington after he admitted to gambling on college basketball, isn’t charged with anything at all.
Most likely to succeed (immediately): Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech and Bo Pelini, Nebraska.
Yeah, I know Bill Stewart is going to succeed at West Virginia. He takes over a team that was one rivalry game away from going to the national championship last year. I know he guided the Mountaineers to a win in the Fiesta Bowl over Oklahoma in Rich Rodriguez’s absence. I know West Virginia returns a ton of talent despite the loss of Steve Slaton to the NFL. I also know Stewart isn’t going to a new school, he’s stepping into a new position. If Stewart doesn’t win at least eight games it will be a surprise. So I choose to focus on those coaches who are completely new at their schools, those that have to turn around a program, not continue the success of their predecessor.
Petrino and Nutt inherit talented teams, but the SEC is just too loaded for them to step in and enjoy immediate success (ask Nick Saban, who accepted a $32 million dollar contract at Alabama and proceeded to coach the Tide to a fifth place finish in the SEC west). They’ll probably be above .500, and be invited to a bowl, but in places like Arkansas and Mississippi that is mediocrity, not success. UCLA’s schedule will likely prove to be too much for Rick Neuhiesel, at least this season. The Bruin’s will play road games against BYU, Oregon and Arizona State as well as home games against Tennessee, Fresno State, Oregon State and USC. Paul Johnson inherits a Georgia Tech team that went 7-5 last year and it will be interesting to see how ACC defenses deal with the triple option. Standing in Johnson’s way are road games at Boston College, at Virginia Tech, at Clemson and at Georgia.
Nebraska could not stop anybody last season. Eight of the twelve teams that Nebraska played last year scored more than thirty points against them. Enter former Nebraska defensive coordinator Bo Pelini. In 2003, Pelini’s first season at Nebraska, the Husker’s defense was ranked eleventh nationally, improved from 55th the year before. Nebraska had very little trouble scoring last year, averaging over 34 points per game. And though they will have to replace quarterback Sam Keller, they only play five teams that had winning records last year compared to seven teams that didn’t.
Most Likely to fail (immediately): Rich Rodriguez, Michigan.
Rodriguez isn’t starting from scratch in building his program at Michigan, but he might be better off if he was. Quarterback Chad Henne, Running Back Mike Hart and receiver Mario Manningham are all on NFL rosters now. In fact, the offense only returns three starters and it is likely that a freshman will start at quarterback. Rodriguez must make the square peg players that are returning fit into his round hole offense as he installs the spread option at a program where the previous definition of innovation was the forward pass. Michigan plays Utah, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan State at home and Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue and Ohio State on the road. They return all four defensive linemen, and that will be a strength, but they will not have nearly enough talent or experience to match up with that schedule. At least not this year.
The Wild Card: June Jones, SMU.
When Jones stepped in at the University of Hawaii, their program was in disarray. The then Rainbow Warriors had lost eighteen games in a row including all twelve the year before. In one year, Jones orchestrated the largest turnaround in NCAA football history, and Hawaii won nine games including beating Oregon State in the Oahu Bowl. SMU has some of the foundation laid for success, but they finished 1-11 last season, with no conference victories while giving up almost 40 points and over 300 passing yards per game last season. Jones has never been known as a defensive minded coach; Hawaii allowed over 28 points per game last season against division one opponents. Combine that with the suspensions of returning starting quarterback Justin Willis and returning strong safety Bryce Hudman as well as uncertainty at the offensive line, which is particularly crucial in Jones’ offense (remember the Sugar Bowl?) and lack of proven depth at receiver and it’s hard to bet on Jones performing another record turn around this year. I wouldn’t bet against him either.
The Early Story Lines of 2008
We Should Know Very Early Who the BCS Favorite Is August 17, 2008
I would tell you to circle September 13 on your calendar but that is a tired cliché and you really won’t need to. In the week, or possibly weeks, leading up to that date you will be reminded repeatedly of what is happening that Saturday: the Ohio State University Buckeyes versus the University of Southern California Trojans. It has been argued that college football doesn’t need a playoff system because its regular season is, in of itself, a tournament. If that is true, then no game this season looks more like a playoff game than this one. One of these two teams has played in five of the last six BCS championship games, and if this series had been played in the last two years, the BCS landscape would likely have looked drastically different.
Ohio State returns a ton of starters, including quarterback Todd Boeckman, running back Chris Wells, linebacker James Laurinaitis and defensive back Malcolm Jenkins. No one outside of Ohio wants to talk about it, but if the Buckeyes can beat USC in Los Angeles, and win the Big Ten championship with one or no losses, something they have done with considerable ease lately, it would be hard to keep them out of the national championship game. Other than USC, Ohio State’s out-of-conference schedule consists of Youngstown State and Troy and the rest of their 2008 opponents have beaten them a total of twice over the last three seasons. In fact, it is because of the ease of the rest of the Buckeye’s schedule that adding this match up against the Trojans was so important. Given the lopsided losses Ohio State sustained in the last two national championships, and despite road games against quality opponents like Wisconsin and Illinois, even an undefeated record this year without a win over a team like USC might not guarantee them a return trip to the BCS championship game.
Similarly, Ohio State will likely be either USC’s main obstacle or main catalyst to getting to the national championship game. The difference is that USC didn’t really need this game. The Trojans didn’t get blown out in the last two national championships and the PAC-10 conference is not perceived to be as weak as the BIG-10. The Trojans are not currently lacking cred. They probably didn’t need to schedule an out of conference power to make it the title game. Those of us that like big games in September, or those who are simply hoping that Ohio State does not get a third straight chance at a national championship are glad they did anyway.
Can Texas Tech emerge in the Big-12? August 18, 2008
Last year Texas Tech finished 9-4 including a victory over Virginia in the Gator Bowl despite finishing 118th in the nation in total rushing offense and giving up an average of almost 26 points per game. The only way a football team could win the majority of its games while both running the ball and playing defense so poorly would be to compensate in some enormous way in another area. They would have to do something like, say, lead the nation in total passing offense. This is exactly what the Red Raiders did in 2007. Head coach and passing guru Mike Leach’s team was the only team in the nation to throw for more than 6,000 passing yards (6,114), they also led the nation in passing yards per game (470.3) and finished seventh in the nation in scoring (40.9 points per game), despite only rushing for 771 total yards. To put that into perspective there were 93 individual players that rushed for more yards than Texas Tech did as a team.
The offense will be back in 2008. Quarterback Graham Harrell returns after throwing for a total of 10,260 yards and 86 touchdowns the last two seasons. Michael Crabtree, who broke every conceivable record for a freshman receiver last year, and led the nation in receptions (134), receiving yards (1962) and receiving touchdowns (22), is also back. Oh, and don’t forget all five offensive linemen.
If Leach and Texas Tech hope to make the leap from being a good team to being an elite team, they must figure out a way to stop the other team’s offense from scoring. Four games into the 2007 season Ruffin McNeill was named interim defensive coordinator. 2008 will be McNeill’s first full season at the helm of the defense, and there is hope in Lubbock that he can turn the defense’s production around. While the defense did play better at times after McNeill took over, it still allowed at least 27 points in five of Texas Tech’s last six games, and the only team they held below that mark was Baylor, who failed to win a single conference game last season. In a conference including Oklahoma and Texas, as well as newly emerged Kansas and Missouri, scoring a ton of points probably won’t be enough.
Some Early Season Predictions
Before the season started last year I told you that Appalachian State would cover the spread against Michigan, that Illinois would beat Ohio State and keep them out of the national championship game (half right), and that Tim Tebow would have one of the most remarkable seasons in college football history and still not win the Heisman, (again, half right, though if Chase Daniel and Missouri had beaten Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game or Dennis Dixon hadn’t injured his knee, I still don’t think Tebow would have won). You’re probably thinking, “yeah, but you probably predicted a bunch of stuff that didn’t end up happening too.” Well, first, no I didn’t and second even if I did, this is my column not yours, so shut up. I’m sorry, that was rude. Here are my bold preseason predictions for 2008.
Appalachian State will not keep it close when they play LSU. Sorry, LSU is not Michigan, and App state isn’t sneaking up on anybody this year. LSU has the speed on defense to contain the Mountaineers and unlike Michigan, isn’t afraid of a mobile quarterback. Appalachian State no longer has RB Kevin Richardson who averaged nearly 1500 yards the last three seasons, and will be outmanned at nearly every position, with the notable exception of quarterback.
Utah will beat Michigan in their opener. The only reason to think that the Wolverines might win this game is because it’s in Ann Arbor. Utah returns fourteen starters from a team that won nine games last year. Michigan returns three offensive starters, none of whom have taken a snap at quarterback in a college football game, and none of whom have played a game in Rich Rodriguez’s new offense.
Dave Wannstedt will finally turn Pittsburgh into a winner. Pitt finished last season by upsetting rival West Virginia in a game that likely kept the Mountaineers out of the national championship in 2007. In Dave Wannstedt’s third year as head coach, the Panthers lost seven games, but four of those losses came by a touchdown or less. Iowa returns fifteen starters, including LeSean McCoy, who ran for over 1,300 yards and fourteen touchdowns as a freshman and linebacker Scott McKillop, who led the NCAA in tackles per game with 12.6. Wannstedt has recruited well and this will be his fourth season at Pitt, when you would generally expect a coaches recruiting impact to become apparent. Their schedule is navigable; of their first four opponents, only Bowling Green had a winning record last season and they only play one ten-win team from last year, West Virginia, and not until November 28.
Florida and Georgia will not both enter their matchup undefeated. This game has been played 85 times before and it hasn’t happened yet. There’s no reason to think it will happen this year either. Sure, both teams are immensely talented and enter the season ranked in the top five in both polls, but their schedules won’t allow it. Before the game formerly known as “The Cocktail Party,” arrives the Bulldogs play at South Carolina, Arizona State and LSU as well as Alabama and Tennessee at home. Relatively speaking, Florida has an easier road leading up to Jacksonville, highlighted by a trip to Tennessee and LSU at home. However, Florida does play five total SEC opponents before they play Georgia, and as we have seen in the past, any thing can happen in that conference. I’m not saying one team couldn’t come into this game with a perfect record, only that two will not.
Conference Champions Okay, so I don’t care about what the experts are saying about Clemson, they have no offensive line, and they didn’t have a single win against a quality opponent last year. Other than that, I’m playing it pretty safe with my conference picks this year. So, to make up for it, I’m giving you some teams that might surprise everyone, and the teams that have absolutely no chance of winning their conferences.
Conference / Experts / My Pick / Dark Horse / No Chance
ACC Clemson / Wake Forest / Miami / NC State
Big 12 Oklahoma / Oklahoma / Texas Tech / Baylor
Big East Pittsburgh / Pittsburgh / Connecticut / Syracuse
Big Ten Ohio State / Ohio State / Illinois, Penn St. / Minnesota
PAC 10 USC / USC / ASU, Oregon /The Rest
SEC FL, GA / FL, AUB / Almost Everyone / Arkansas
The six BCS conferences are more wide open than ever before. Don’t be surprised if the national title picture shifts around as much or maybe more than it did last year. In the ACC, Clemson is once again over rated, Ohio State is the class of the Big Ten, but will be challenged by Illinois, Penn State, Michigan State and possibly Wisconsin for supremacy in a conference that will be overshadowed by the three conferences that matter, the SEC, Big Twelve and PAC 10. In a very weak ACC, it will come down to Wake Forest and Miami, in a very strong Big 12, Oklahoma will have tons of competition from Missouri, Kansas, Texas and Texas Tech. In the PAC 10 it is once again USC and everyone else. The Big East is probably the biggest question mark. Connecticut, South Florida and West Virginia are all coming off successful years, but many people (myself included) think this is Pittsburgh’s year. Most of the talk about the SEC has been about the Eastern Division and Florida, Georgia and Tennessee. I’ve heard mentions of South Carolina being a dark horse, but I don’t see that. I like Florida’s chances because of their schedule, but Auburn has had Florida’s number of late, and the two could meet in the championship game.